The global automotive gears market is expected to grow by USD 42.7 billion in 2024 to 50.8 billion in 2030, projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.0% in the forecasted period. The rising global vehicle production is expected to drive the market. The rising demand for SUVs and premium vehicles has increased in developed and developing countries, with increasing disposable income, consumer demand for ride quality, and rising brand awareness. Global vehicle production has risen ~10% in the past four years, from 84.8 million units in 2020 to 93.5 million in 2023. As the market is directly linked to the automotive gears market, vehicle production will drive the growth of automotive gears.
Helical Gears are expected to be the most prominent automotive gear segment.
Helical gear accounted for the largest share during the forecast period. Helical gear has a major application in transmission systems, covering all transmission types. Helical gears are utilized as forward gears in manual and AMT, while DCT uses helical gears for both forward and reverse motions. These transmissions are installed with different gears, most of which are helical. Globally, manual transmission accounted for the largest market share, and the demand for these transmissions is high in developing countries such as China and India due to the price competitiveness compared to other transmission types. The adoption of AMT is growing in lower car segments in developed countries like China and India. This is mainly due to ease-of-use benefits while driving towards heavy city traffic in these countries.
Further, Automated Manual Transmission is expected to grow fastest during the projected years. Asia Pacific contributes to the highest market share for AMT during the forecast period. The growth of AMT is seen in Asia-Pacific due to lower costs compared to fully automatic or dual-clutch transmissions, which are placed in cars with higher price ranges. The Automated manual transmission is mainly installed in mid-level passenger cars, and growing sales of mid-level passenger cars are driving the demand for AMT and ultimately driving the helical gears. Similarly, most passenger cars are front-wheel drive and equipped with transaxle, which uses helical gears, which increases the demand for helical gears.
DCT is an upgraded version of automatic transmission. It is slowly being implemented in medium to premium end vehicles, starting with the mid-trim version, for smooth gear shifting and enhanced drive quality for convenience. This growing adoption has increased with the number of helical gears installed in these transmission systems.
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Heavy commercial vehicles are estimated to be the fastest-growing gear segment.
Heavy commercial vehicles, including trucks and buses & coaches, are estimated to be the fastest-growing market for gears. Growing mining activities, logistics & e-commerce industry, and infrastructural developments fuel the market growth of heavy truck segments. HCVs have multi-speed transmissions ranging from 6-speed manual to 14-speed semi-automatic and automatic transmissions (i-shift transmission offered in Volvo trucks (Sweden)). These transmissions have varied gears ranging from 14 to 28 units. Heavy trucks above 20 tons GVW are offered in multi-axle configurations (4×4, 6×4, 8×4), due to which the number of differentials is doubled, increasing the number of differential gears. In addition, a few heavier trucks above 25 tonnage capacity are offered with Torsen differential due to their capability to handle extensive long-haul trucking operations on diverse terrains. The demand for trucks equipped with automatic transmissions is higher in North America, which drives the demand for planetary gears and other gear types. Alternatively, multi-axle buses & coaches are experiencing a surge in popularity due to their enhanced stability, increased passenger capacity, and improved comfort, critical in long-distance intracity travel. Usually, these heavy coaches are available in three or more axle configurations. This enables market growth opportunities for the gear manufacturers for differential systems for this vehicle segment. Thus, growing sales of trucks and buses with higher gear ratios will drive the demand for the automotive gears market during the forecast period.
Asia Pacific region will dominate the global automotive gears market.
Asia Pacific is estimated to be the largest global automotive gear market during the forecast period. The market dominance of Asia Pacific can be attributed to the higher production of passenger and commercial vehicles. The region dominates economy class vehicles installed with rack & pinion gears for the steering system and helical and spur gears for 5-speed manual transmission. Further, regional countries have noticed a shift towards mid-price range vehicles provided with 6-speed manual & 7-9-speed automatic transmission or DCT. This will enable the growth of planetary and helical gears for transmission systems. In addition, strong demand for DCT has been noticed in China, India, and Japan, accelerating the SUV market growth. Rising sales of mid & full-size SUVs with AWD/4WD configurations in countries such as China and India drive the demand for differential gears. With the growing demand for premium vehicles with advanced safety & convenient features, like automated tailgates, electric sunroofs, and ORVMs, the demand for non-metallic gear is also expected to rise. Together, these factors will drive the Asia Pacific market for automotive gears.
Key Market Players:
The major players in the automotive gears industry include American Axle & Manufacturing Holding, Inc. (US), GKN Powder Metallurgy (US), Bharat Gears Ltd. (India), JTEKT Corporation (Japan), and Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany).
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