Can Electric Bus Market Share Overtake Traditional Buses in the Next Decade?

The electric bus market share is rapidly expanding as governments and transit authorities worldwide prioritize sustainable public transportation solutions. With increased demand for eco-friendly alternatives to traditional diesel buses, electric buses are becoming a significant portion of the overall bus market. Key regions, including North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, are investing heavily in electric bus fleets to reduce carbon emissions and improve air quality. Countries like China and India, in particular, have seen substantial growth in electric bus adoption due to government incentives and stringent emission regulations. These factors are expected to drive further growth in the electric bus market share over the coming years.

In addition to environmental benefits, the electric bus market share is influenced by advancements in battery technology, which are making electric buses more efficient and cost-effective. The development of longer-lasting batteries and faster charging infrastructure is enabling operators to adopt electric buses on a larger scale. Major players in the automotive industry are collaborating with technology companies to enhance electric bus capabilities, positioning themselves for greater market share. As cities aim to electrify their public transit systems, the electric bus market share is projected to grow significantly, shaping the future of urban transportation and supporting global sustainability goals.

The global electric bus market is estimated to grow from USD 17.0 billion in 2024 to USD 37.5 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 14.2% over the forecast period. 

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The battery electric bus segment is estimated to be the largest segment during the forecast period.

The BEVs segment dominates the electric bus market with around 95% share in 2024. Even though BEVs are more expensive to acquire initially compared to diesel buses, they have more operational efficiency, with the average being about 90% as compared to diesel ones, which is between 30% and 40%. The average range of battery electric buses usually delivers an average range of 150 to 250 miles, based on the installed battery type, and cost less with power consumption compared to diesel-powered vehicles. This results in reduced operational expenses for pure electric buses. The Asia-Pacific will remain the largest market for BEVs, with government policies supportive to pure electric buses. Aggressive efforts of China and financial support of India are the main forces behind this industry at present. By 2023, over 70% of all electric buses running on roads across the world will be from India. Besides, a significant dependence of battery electric buses lies in the improvement of battery technology. LFP, NMC, LTO, LMO, and other lithium-ion types of batteries had higher energy density and were cost-efficient. That way, electric buses can now go further between charges compared to earlier models of electric vehicles, thus reducing operational costs. Suppliers such as CATL, LG Energy Solution, and Panasonic have increased their production in order to satisfy the increasing need for high-performance batteries designed for electric buses. Therefore, increased regulatory compliance efforts, advancements in technology by manufacturers and suppliers, rising environmental consciousness, and a focus on sustainable mobility have all contributed to substantial growth in the battery electric bus sector.

North America will be the fastest-growing market for electric buses from 2024-2030.

North America is estimated to be the fastest-growing market during the forecast period. In North America, government incentives, the presence of individual investors, and technological edge are driving the electric bus market. The US has been leading the market in this region. The market is expanding due to government incentives, tax breaks, and private investments. The Federal Transit Administration set aside USD 1.7 billion in 2023 for buses, with an emphasis on zero-emission vehicles, even though European acceptance lags lag. This shift is further supported by the USD 5.6 billion set up in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for cleaner buses. make at least one-third of its 70,000 public transit buses electric by 2045. Government incentives and public-private partnership (PPP) schemes and policies like Toronto’s plan to convert 50% of its fleet to electric by 2050 show the region’s commitment to sustainable transport solutions. For instance, in Canada, public-private partnership initiatives and government incentives are being used to introduce electric buses in the market. Canada is rapidly implementing electric buses, with tax breaks and provincial subsidies making the purchase easier. Growth is driven by public-private partnerships and government incentives with the goal of incorporating electric buses into public fleets. Moreover, manufacturers with advance technology that dominate the industry includes NFI Group and Blue Bird Corporation. Due to environmental concerns, public transit has been more popular over time, and this has improved infrastructure, which has contributed to fostering the market’s rapid growth in this area.

The report profiles key players such as BYD Company Ltd. (China), Yutong Co., Ltd. (China), VDL Groep (Netherlands), AB Volvo (Sweden) and CAF (Solaris Bus & Coach sp. z o.o.) (Spain). These companies adopted new product development, and supply contract strategies to gain traction in the terminal tractor market.

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